Posts Tagged ‘Recorded Future’
Future-Predicting Search Engine Reveals Some of the Analytical Tricks Inside Its Crystal Ball
Speaking to Technology Review, company founder Christopher Ahlberg described how its software goes deeper than search engines like Google that simply rank the relevance of results by links. Rather, it analyzes the more nuanced, invisible connections between events and people that shape the future. Doing so, he says, lets Recorded Future look for patterns that suggest certain outcomes, like when a product might release or when a company might clear a patent hurdle or offer an IPO.
Recorded Future’s software does this semantically, using linguistic tools that identify certain types of events and the sentiment conveyed in the wording. It aims for articles with some degree of established veracity, like government filings, news articles, and speeches by leaders or heads of industry, but the software also scans Twitter updates and other measures of general feeling or sentiment surrounding an event, person, company, or product.
In other words, it’s less a matter of Recorded Future wagering an educated guess about a future event and more like an aggregation of predictions that have already been made. That aggregate collated prediction about the future is influenced by all the factors listed above and gives, say, a stock analyst a reasonable measure of when an event is likely to happen.
Right now Recorded Future has fewer than 100 clients paying to use its tools, but those that are using them aren’t lightweights – Ahlberg tells TR a mix of government analysts and financial firms are taking advantage of the insight the company offers. Those are players whose decisions are tied to serious stakes in both security and finance, lending Recorded Future an air of serious credibility. Indeed, studies of its past performance have shown its models tended show increased strength of activity around an event or entity that correlated to real time market activity.
Which means Recorded Future, and analytic tools like it, might have a future after all.
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Google Invests in Startup that Predicts the Future
Recorded Future appears to be a data analytics company that tries to calculate what the future might hold by applying search-engine like capabilities to highly specific data sets in order to deduce what's probable to happen down the road. By scanning the Web for the frequency and nature of references to a certain person or occurrence, Recorded Future computes what it calls a "momentum value" for each entity in its database. From there, it tries to project future happenings, be they stock market swings or terrorist attacks.
A on Recorded Future's Web site explains:
The momentum value indicates how interesting a certain event or entity is at a particular time, and is continuously updated. In computing the momentum value, we take into account the volume of news around an entity or event, as well as what sources it is mentioned in, what other events and entities it is mentioned together with, and several other factors.
The post continues:
The momentum measure is used to present the most relevant query results in our web user interface, but it can also be analyzed using statistical methods to predict possible future changes in momentum, which in turn can be valuable e.g. for trading decisions.
It sounds more reliable than a crystal ball, and honestly it sounds like a good fit for Google. Recorded Future's analytics tools could prove valuable to the search giant, especially if they prove useful at crunching large volumes of data into useful, actionable information -- a task that is Google's bread and butter. We'll try to guard our optimism and not dwell on the fact that such prediction models sounds vaguely similar to some of the risk management models employed by once-mighty investment firms.
Google plans to invest $100 million in startups through Google Ventures this year alone, so regardless of whether Recorded Ventures pans out, we predict Google will be just fine.
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